SA's 2027 renewable energy target in jeopardy, but experts say timeline is less important

South Australia's ambitious goal of reaching 100 per cent net renewable energy by 2027 may be slipping out of reach, but experts say the exact timeline is less important than the state's overall progress.

In an interview, Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis hinted that the target may not be met until 2028, saying "I think we are going to get to 100 per cent. I am confident we can meet that target," but adding "the question for us is going to be is when in 2027 we hit that target."

Mr Koutsantonis emphasized that the ambition behind the target is what's driving the government's agenda, saying "if we overshoot it a bit, it gets into a little bit of 2028, fine. But the ambition is what's important. The ambition is what drives the government's agenda here."

Renewable energy growth slows

Renewable energy sources, primarily solar and wind, accounted for 77.1 per cent of the state's net electricity generation in 2025, according to the latest federal data. However, the pace of new large-scale wind farm projects has slowed, according to Renew Economy founding editor Giles Parkinson.

"No one's going to build more wind farms in South Australia without that transmission link," Mr Parkinson said, referring to the new SA-NSW interconnector. "Because the risk would be if they brought a wind farm, then all of their output would be curtailed because there wasn't enough demand in the state for that."

The interconnector is now complete, allowing SA to export excess solar and wind to NSW, and the state's renewables pipeline appears to be rebounding. The value of large-scale renewable energy and storage projects under construction or with development approval in SA has grown to nearly $32.5 billion, according to government figures.

What would missing the 2027 target mean?

Experts say that missing the 2027 target would not have significant consequences, with Dr Lin Han, a Lecturer in Business Analytics at Flinders University, noting that "the long-term progress matters more than the exact year."

"If South Australia reaches 100 per cent in 2028 rather than 2027, it is still a huge achievement if we look back to 10 years ago," Dr Han said. "In 2007, renewables made up just one per cent of SA's electricity generation."

Dr Han warned that getting from 75 per cent to 100 per cent would be "likely to be more challenging than the earlier stages of the transition," requiring new storage, transmission, and backup capacity.

Decarbonisation challenges

While SA has made significant progress in renewable energy, its decarbonisation record in other sectors, such as transport, heavy industry, and households, is more mixed. The state government has faced criticism for shelving a hydrogen power plant project in Whyalla, which was seen as a key part of its decarbonisation strategy.

Clean Energy Investor Group chief executive Richie Merzian said that "a lot of chips were put on hydrogen as a bet that this would really help with the decarbonisation challenge," and that the government needs to "course correct" and focus on other areas.

Mr Koutsantonis said that gas remained important for industrial heat and economic activity, and that the government would not impose limits or additional costs on homebuyers who want to use gas.